On-Chain Data Analysis: When Will the Next Season of Altcoins Begin?

By: blockbeats|2025/01/02 18:15:03
0
Share
copy
Original Author: Murphy, On-chain Data Analyst


On-chain Data Evaluation Model - Altseason

One day while I was in class, Xiaochi from @FC_0X0 sent me a message on WeChat saying, "There is a piece of data that shows the scissor difference between the total stablecoin inflow into exchanges and the USD value of withdrawn BTC, indicating the remaining potential buying power and the volatility of altcoins may have a direct relationship. Can we use this logic to explore the timing of altcoin seasons?"


Coincidentally, my lecture also mentioned observing data on the potential conditions of "capital outflow," which aligned with certain high-market-cap altcoins' launch timeframes. However, at that time, it was just a rough outline, vaguely hinting at some overlooked areas...


When I returned, I organized the data and, inspired by Xiaochi's idea, reconsidered a set of visual indicators that can effectively assess the "Altseason." Here, I share my train of thought:

Altseason Condition 1: Capital Outflow Evaluation

On-Chain Data Analysis: When Will the Next Season of Altcoins Begin?

(Chart 1)


In Chart 1, the green color indicates whether the total stablecoin inflow into exchanges in the last 30 days is greater than the USD value of BTC withdrawn from exchanges. If it is, it means that, besides buying BTC, there is also a possibility of outflow into altcoins. The higher the green signal bar, the greater the theoretical outflow value, indicating a stronger prerequisite for the Altseason initiation.


From the data perspective, during the periods of 2023.10-2024.3 and 2024.11-2024.12, the theoretical outflow value was the highest, implying a higher likelihood of the Altseason occurring during these two periods. Additionally, there was a brief period between August and September, but in terms of both scale and duration, it was not as strong as the two aforementioned periods, making its influence relatively weaker.

Altseason Condition 2: Inflow of Mainstream Assets

(Chart 2)


Historically, BTC often leads the overall sentiment of the crypto market, followed by market confidence flowing into other high-market-cap mainstream coins before further tilting towards alts. Visualizing this capital rotation involves using the 30-day change in realized market cap of BTC and ETH, along with the total supply of stablecoins (as shown in Chart 2). When all three major mainstream assets experience net capital inflows, it signals that the market sentiment is becoming exuberant, overall risk appetite is rising, which is also one of the macro necessary conditions to kickstart the Altseason.


From the data, it can be seen that during the periods of 2023.10-2024.8 and 2024.10-2024.12, all three major mainstream assets experienced net capital inflows, peaking in March 2024 and December 2024. This is also the most FOMO moment in market sentiment so far in this cycle.

Altcoin Season Indicator 3: Positive Momentum in Altcoin Market Cap Disparity

(Figure 3)


The third condition required to determine the start of the altcoin season is the isolation of positive momentum in the disparity of altcoin total market capitalization. We need to identify time periods within the altcoin space where the 7D SMA of total valuation is greater than the 30D SMA of total valuation. Because this can represent an amplification of altcoin valuation in the short term, and liquidity flowing into altcoins is rapidly increasing.

In Figure 3, the red line represents the 7D average, and the blue line represents the 30D average; from the data, during the periods of 2023.10-2024.4 and 2024.11-2024.12, the red line crossed above the blue line, indicating that liquidity in the crypto space is starting to tilt towards altcoins, and altcoin market cap is shifting towards positive momentum growth.

Summary

These three conditions are considered from different perspectives: Condition 1 represents the potential for capital overflow; Condition 2 represents overall sentiment and risk appetite; Condition 3 represents liquidity skew. When all three conditions are met simultaneously, it is highly likely that the altcoin season is approaching.


The current Condition 2 is met, but Conditions 1 and 3 are not; therefore, we can consider that the foundation for the altcoin season is there, but liquidity is still concentrated in mainstream assets (especially BTC), and on-chain funds have not overflowed significantly into altcoins.


However, we can also see that the "negative overflow" in Condition 1 is gradually diminishing, which is a positive signal. Although altcoin season anticipation may require some more patience, what is supposed to happen will happen.

The content shared in this article is for communication and research purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

Original Article Link

You may also like

Morning Report | BitMine increased its holdings by 126,971 ETH last week; trader Eugene announced his exit from the crypto market

Overview of Important Market Events on June 8th

Wang Chuan: How can one not feel anxious after the neighbor Old Wang made thirty times profit by investing in storage stocks? (Seven) - A quarter-century cycle

In-depth analysis of the "reflexivity" bubble trap in storage stocks: Beware of the backlash from the bullwhip effect and the false narrative of high growth; do not let the short-term myth of wealth become a wealth abyss that cannot be recovered for 25 years.

Cryptocurrency CEXs are flocking to sell US stocks, and traditional brokerages are facing an "uninvited guest."

The major reshuffle has just begun.

$75 billion in foreign capital has fled, and South Korean retail investors have absorbed it all using leverage

Despite the accelerated migration of Korean funds from cryptocurrency to the stock market, the Korean market remains an important barometer for global cryptocurrency retail liquidity and recovery turning points.

Japan’s Three Megabanks Plan Joint Stablecoin Issuance in Fiscal 2026

MUFG, SMBC, and Mizuho reportedly plan to jointly issue fiat-pegged stablecoins in fiscal 2026, signaling Japan’s growing push into bank-led digital payment infrastructure.

Humanity Discloses H Token Dual-Chain Attack Details, With Losses on Ethereum and BSC Exceeding $36 Million

Humanity said the H token attack across Ethereum and BSC caused more than $36 million in losses after leaked ProxyAdmin keys enabled malicious contract upgrades and token minting.

Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

Read more
iconiconiconiconiconiconicon
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Program:support@weex.com