Bitcoin falls below $63,000, possibly due to continuous outflows from ETFs and the expiration of $10.6 billion in options suppressing the market

Bitcoin further declined towards $62,000 on Tuesday, continuing its weak fluctuations under the pressure of six consecutive weeks of outflows from spot ETFs, a shift in macro interest rate expectations towards hawkishness, and the expiration pressure of quarterly options. Ethereum also fell below $1,700 on the same day, with both BTC and ETH retreating nearly 20% over the past 30 days. This week's market pressure mainly comes from two clues. One is that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75% during the FOMC meeting on June 18, but the statement significantly reduced easing language, and the dot plot shifted from previously suggesting rate cuts to indicating rate hikes. Among the 18 officials, 9 have already predicted at least one rate hike this year, and the probability of a rate hike in December has significantly increased compared to a month ago. The second is that geopolitical risks have once again disturbed the market. Previously, expectations of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran had pushed Bitcoin above $67,000, but during the signing ceremony on June 19, the situation broke down, and Iran withdrew from negotiations. Due to the 24/7 trading in the crypto market, Bitcoin was the first to reflect this shock. In addition, Deribit will face the expiration of approximately $10.6 billion in options on June 26, which has also intensified the market's wait-and-see sentiment at the end of the quarter. Analysts believe that current leverage has been largely cleared, and market positions are defensive, but the next direction still depends on Thursday's PCE inflation data and whether the capital flow of spot ETFs can turn positive again.